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Overview
Basics
Basics
This project examined the relationship between climate and the invasion of cheatgrass. In an effort to forecast if climate change and disturbance will trigger further cheatgrass establishment and spread, the environmental factors related to current cheatgrass distribution and abundance in the basin were modeled. A spatially-explicit predictive risk model of cheatgrass invasion was developed and applied under both the current climate and future climate scenarios. Disturbance parameters for disturbance were incorporated to improve model accuracy and predictive value.
Completed
2007
2008
2010
$77,759
Kat McIntyre (KMcIntyre@trpa.gov)
10/27/2017
10/27/2017
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| Location Information | Location Notes |
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Organizations
EIP Details
EIP Basics
EIP Basics
04.01.01.0091 - P028: Predictive Modeling of Cheatgrass Invasion Risk for the Lake Tahoe Basin
Performance Measures
Expected Performance Measures
Expected Performance Measures
No expected performance measures set for this project.
Reported Performance Measures
Reported Performance Measures
No annual performance measure accomplishments entered for this project.
Funding
Expected Funding
Expected Funding
$77,759
$77,759
$0
| Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act (Pacific Southwest Research Station) (USFS - PSW) | $77,759 | $77,759 | $0 |
| Grand Total | $77,759 | $77,759 | $0 |
Reported Expenditures
Reported Expenditures
| Total | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act (Pacifi... | $77,759 | $19,440 | $19,440 | $19,440 | $19,439 |
| Grand Total | $77,759 | $19,440 | $19,440 | $19,440 | $19,439 |
Photos
Other Details
Watersheds
No watersheds set for this project.
Threshold Categories
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Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is an exotic species of major concern in the Lake Tahoe Basin, and may prove to be the first exotic plant to become highly invasive and dramatically alter native-dominated communities within the basin. The resulting information will be useful for creating management scenarios to resist species invasion, restore natural communities, and sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function in the face of changing climate.
Local and Regional Plans
No Local and Regional Plans set for this project.
Related Projects
Related Projects
No Related Projects set for this project.
External Links
No external links entered.
Notes
Notes
| 07/16/2017 9:38 AM | Kiara Cuerpo-Hadsall | Objectives: We examine the relationship between climate and the invasion of cheatgrass in an effort to forecast if climate change and disturbance will trigger further cheatgrass establishment and spread in the Lake Tahoe Basin. |
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| 07/16/2017 9:37 AM | Kiara Cuerpo-Hadsall | Findings: • Drier sites, especially those highly disturbed (e.g., close to roads and urban areas), were more suitable for cheatgrass than wetter, undisturbed sites. These results combined to suggest that cheatgrass in the LTB is controlled primarily by precipitation and proximity to dispersal corridors and disturbances, but temperature, especially average minimum winter temperatures, are also important for determining when cheatgrass establishment can initially occur. • There are large areas within the LTB that are climatically suitable for cheatgrass, but do not yet contain the species. • The binary predictions of the hierarchical model show less area as being suitable for cheatgrass, but also have the highest degree of underprediction (false negatives). • Our climate forecasts suggest climatic suitability for cheatgrass will continue to be high for the LTB into the next 20 years and up to 60 years. |
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| 07/16/2017 9:36 AM | Kiara Cuerpo-Hadsall | Management Implications: • The most effective way to reduce the impact of invasive species is to identify new occurrences and eradicate them. In the beginning of an invasion, there is a window of opportunity where eradication is possible and economically feasible. • Our spatially explicit model of invasion risk for the LTB, available as a GIS, is a tool that allows managers to predict where invasion is currently most likely. • It is imperative to carry out pre-project inventory of invasion in these sites and to monitor the effects of these projects on cheatgrass invasion after treatment. Burned areas should also be monitored for cheatgrass presence. Quick action should be taken if cheatgrass establishment is documented. |
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| 07/16/2017 9:35 AM | Kiara Cuerpo-Hadsall | Publications: www.fs.fed.us/PSW/partnerships/tahoescience |